Research

If you are interested in the full working papers, just reach me out!

Working Papers

The Impact of Climate Change on Fisheries
Italian Economic Society (SIE ) Best Doctoral Thesis Award
Italian Young Environmental Economist Award by IAERE.

Abstract. This study investigates the economic impact of climate change on fisheries by providing the first causal estimate of the effect of sea surface temperatures (SST) variations on fishing revenues. We formalize this relationship within a theoretical model and estimate it empirically using over 2.5 million spatially disaggregated observations of fishing revenues from European vessels (2013–2022), matched with satellite-based SST data. The identification strategy leverages a novel exposure metric, Marine Degree Days, which quantifies species-specific temperature exposure relative to biologically established thermal tolerance intervals. Within this framework we address key identification challenges unique to the fisheries context, including non-random spatial selection by fishers and ecological interdependencies across species. We find that deviations from species’ thermal preferences, whether colder or warmer, lead to significant losses in fishing revenues, with hot exposure causing the most pronounced impacts. These effects are mediated by species’ typical depth ranges, and ecological category. Projections across different climate scenarios point to widespread revenues declines by 2100, reaching 800 million of annual losses in the worst scenario, though impacts vary considerably by region. Lower-income, equatorial areas are expected to suffer the most, while some colder regions may see modest gains. Taken together, our findings reveal the asymmetric and non-linear effects of ocean warming on fisheries, reinforcing the urgent need for adaptive strategies to support marine-based livelihoods.

Site aggregation in recreational demand modelling with an application to the impact of sediments runoffs in coastal waters
with Mia Comeros, Carlo Fezzi, and Kirsten Oleson
Conditionally accepted, Environmental and Resource Economics.

Abstract. This paper estimates the impact of site aggregation in multisite travel cost models, considering two different estimators: the repeated conditional logit and the two-stage approach. Using data from more than 9000 choice-occasions across 176 recreational sites, we evaluate whether grouping all non-target site alternatives into a single “other recreation” option affects parameter estimates and welfare values. We find that aggregation has negligible effects on both coefficients and welfare measures. The two-stage approach performs similarly to the conditional logit when simulating site-closure scenarios, but it becomes substantially less precise in applications involving changes in site quality. Our findings highlight the value of comparing both estimators in applied work and suggest that grouping together alternatives that play only a limited role in the substitution patterns of interest can be a defensible and practical modelling choice. Our empirical application concerns beach closures triggered by sediment runoffs on Maui, Hawaiʻi, estimated to generate welfare losses ranging from $6 to $11 million depending on modelling assumptions.

The impact of extreme heat on suicides in prisons (short paper)
Pre-print here

Abstract. I study the effect of high temperatures on suicides in prisons. I combine event-level data on suicides across Italian correctional institutions between 2002 and 2024 with hourly gridded temperature data, constructing a panel of 44,712 institution-month observations and 1,259 suicides. I estimate two fixed-effects Poisson models relating monthly suicide counts to flexible measures of temperature exposure exploiting the variation in local temperature from institution-specific seasonal patterns, controlling for institutional changes and other national shocks. I find that suicide incidence increases markedly when outdoor temperatures exceed 25°C: ten additional hours above this threshold, relative to the 15--20°C range, increase expected monthly suicides by approximately 4.6%. An illustrative cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that installing air conditioning in Italian prisons could prevent between 3.65 and 6.25 suicides per year, depending on the coverage level, with an estimated cost of €1.55-€1.81 million per suicide avoided.

Selected work in Progress

Conservation against Local Growth? Assessing the Economic Consequences of Marine Protection
with Clementina Crocè, Carlo Fezzi, and Rosario Guaia

Description. This project aim to provide a causal assessment of how Marine Protected Areas affect local economic performance. We combine the staggered rollout of MPAs in Italy with administrative firm balance-sheet data for coastal municipalities to estimate how protection reshapes revenues and sectoral activity in nearby communities.

Following the fish: spatial adaptation to climate change
with Marco Tomasi

Description. This project studies climate adaptation in global fisheries. We combine global data on fishing effort with daily information on wave conditions and sea surface temperature to estimate the spatial impulse response of fishing effort to temperature shocks. The underlying intuition is that, as changes in temperature make some fishing grounds less profitable, fishers may adapt by reallocating their effort across space. .

The productivity and water-efficiency impacts of innovative irrigation systems
with Carlo Fezzi, Giulio Galdi, and Roberta Raffaelli

Description. This project studies how drip irrigation affects farm productivity and water efficiency using detailed panel data from Italian apple and grape producers. The goal is to understand whether more efficient irrigation technologies can reduce agricultural water use without harming farm economic performance.

Published Work

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